0117 330 8910
Risk score - a unique predictive scoring model has been developed in conjunction with Scorex (UK) Ltd aimed at enabling you to detect those companies at risk of corporate failure within the next 12 months.
In the course of a year, approximately 2% of the trading population will become insolvent. However, this doesn’t mean that every company has a 2% chance of failure. By using a risk score, we can give you more precise and accurate information indicating which companies have a higher risk of insolvency.
The scoring system gives each company a rating of 1 to 100, with 1 indicating a high risk of becoming insolvent, and 100 being a low risk. By using historical statistics we can calculate the relative risk of insolvency at each company’s score and compare this with the background rate of 2%.
These examples illustrate the extremes of the scale. This system indicates the probability of a company becoming insolvent, it is not a certainty or a guarantee. Companies with a score of 10 or less still have a 50% chance of survival, and 0.25% of companies with a score of 80 or over will still fail. This is the nature of probability – it indicates the likelihood of an event occurring, but cannot predict what will actually happen.
The credit limit helps you to work out an indication of a company’s capability to settle potential credit transactions. It uses the credit capacity and risk score of a company to help create a guide to the level of credit that this company should be able to settle.
To work out the credit limit, these three values are taken into consideration:
The average of these 3 values is taken as the guide to the company’s credit capacity. The credit limit also takes into account a company’s risk score, so that high risk companies are less likely to be extended the same level of credit as low risk companies. This helps to protect creditors from extending high levels of credit to companies which are likely to become insolvent.
The final value is taken as a percentage of the credit capacity, where the percentage is directly proportional to risk score, i.e. the greater the score the higher the percentage, which can be from 2.5 to 25%.
There are exceptions to this formula, which is industry specific.
There are some companies that will not have a credit limit attached. These companies will have scored below 15 or alternatively all elements from the balance sheet and cash flow will be negative.
The credit limit for newly incorporated companies, depending on the legal status of the company, is set a credit limit between £500 and £5,000. The limit will then increase over time unless adverse data is filed. Once a set of accounts has been filed the normal methodology for the calculation applies
The contract limits are calculated as a percentage of turnover. The latest disclosed turnover reflects the level of successful contracts completed, hence gives an indication of future capacity. Where turnover is not disclosed (abridged accounts), an estimated figure is used based on asset values and appropriate industry data. As with credit limits, the higher the score the greater the % to apply (range = 2.5% to 35%). This measurement views the applicant as a supplier of goods and services, whereas a credit limit assesses the applicant as a purchaser. The maximum value is capped at £500 million and the minimum value is now £500.
The resulting limit should be regarded as a yardstick for maximum contract capacity on a single contract over a 12 month period.
A contract limit combines relative risk and absolute measurement of contract capacity.
Ultimate holding companies are sourced from the annual report and accounts; this is the only place where a company is obliged to publish this information.
The annual return and annual report and accounts are filed separately and at different dates each year. In some cases you might have to wait nearly two years for the annual report and accounts to be made public. Hence the system may have identified the holding company from the annual return but cannot ascertain the ultimate holding company as the accounts have not been filed.
It is possible for ownership of a company to change between annual returns. If this change does not involve any new allotments of shares, the transfer of ownership will not be reported until the next annual return is filed.
It is possible for the ultimate owner of a company to change between annual reports and accounts. This change will not show until the next annual report and accounts is filed and analysed by the system.
In the case of certain non analysed companies, for example non traders or dormant companies, the holding company and the ultimate holding company are still updated from the relevant source documents.
If the holding company field is blank but the ultimate holding company is not this would generally mean that no individual company was identified in the annual return as the holding company but that the ultimate holding company was reported in the last set of accounts. You should check the date of latest annual return and latest analysed accounts to aid interpretation.
A holding company or ultimate holding company's name may change between annual returns or annual reports and accounts. On Aquila, for UK holding companies and ultimate holding companies, the new name will be reflected, as the registration number is used to look up the current name when a report is requested.
An explanation of all known shareholdings for this company.
Companies registered in England and Wales sometimes create a mortgage or charge that must be registered. If so, they must deliver details of it, together with any document creating or giving evidence of it, to the Registrar of Companies in Cardiff.
The documents must be delivered within 21 days after the creation of the mortgage or charge to ensure its security in the event of liquidation. A court order may be required to enable registration outside the 21 day limit. Companies are not required to notify the Registrar when they pay off (or satisfy) a registered charge, but it is in their best interests to do so.
The following charges require registration in England and Wales:
a charge on a ship or aircraft or any share in a ship
a charge on goodwill, or on a patent, trademark, registered design, copyright or design right or a licence under or in respect of any such right
a charge on land (wherever situated), or any interest in it, but not a Charge for any rent or other periodical sum arising from land. Technically, land includes property
The profit & loss account differs significantly from the balance sheet in that it is a record of the firms trading activities over a period of time whereas the balance sheet is the financial position at a moment in time.
The profit & loss account looks at how well the firm has traded over the time period concerned (usually the last 6 months or year). It shows how much the firm has earned from selling its product or service, and how much it has paid out in costs (production costs, salaries and so on). The net of these two is the amount of profit they have earned. In essence this is what the profit & loss account shows, it just shows it in more detail.
The final retained profit figure is the one that goes to the balance sheet as a source of funds for the company to use. This retained profit may be used to buy fixed assets (machinery, equipment etc.) or it may remain as current assets (cash in the bank, for example).
The balance sheet is one of the financial statements that limited companies and PLCs produce every year for their shareholders. It is a snapshot of the company's financial situation at that moment in time. It is worked out at the company's year end, giving the company's assets and liabilities at that point in time.
Most balance sheets are set out in a vertical format, with assets above liabilities, the difference between the two being net assets.
The money invested in the business may have been used to buy long-term assets or short-term assets. The long-term assets are known as fixed assets, and help the firm to produce. Examples would be machinery, equipment, computers and so on, none of which actually get used up in the production process. The short-term assets are known as current assets, which are used by the firm on a day to day basis. The current assets may include cash, stocks and debtors. The top half of the balance sheet will therefore be made up of the total of the fixed and current Assets, less any current or long-term liabilities the firm may have (creditors, loans and so on).
The bottom half of the balance sheet then looks at where this money came from. This depends on how the business was originally funded. The main source of money for a limited company starting up is the issue of shares. This is termed the share capital, which is the money the original shareholders put into the business. From then on the assets of the company may be built up by ploughing profit back into the business. This is called retained profit, and is the other source of money usually included in the bottom half of the balance sheet.
A cash flow statement tells us how much cash has been generated/utilised within the business and what the closing net cash position is. Net cash is defined as immediately available cash balances less bank overdraft.
The cash flow statement replaced the old style statement of source and application of funds. The various items measure the flow of cash and equivalents during the period.
This figure represents direct exports from the UK
If we want to compare company performance we must first eliminate the size element. You can hardly compare ICI, for example, against a small independent chemical trader and say that the former is the better performer because it has higher sales. However, even if we eliminate absolute size there still exists a problem; two similar sized companies could have identical sales but one has seen profits fall from 100k to 75k, whilst one has seen profits rise from 50k to 60k. In these circumstances, how do we determine the better performer?
One method that allows for comparison is to analyse ratios derived from the financial statements. Basically, expressing one quantity as a proportion of another is a ratio.
In financial statement analysis the use of ratios as a tool to interpretation is universal. Apart from eliminating the effect of size, most ratios are also independent of the reporting currency. There are literally hundreds of ratios that can be derived from the balance sheet, profit & loss account and a combination of both. Obviously a degree of parsimony is needed to decide which are useful. A comparison with the industry, as well as prior year’s figures, is essential to obtain an overall picture.
This section gives an overview of the main financial items, indicating a positive or negative growth over time.
In exceptional circumstances the information contained within a report may differ from what is expected. The detail of information required by law can differ depending on individual company circumstances:
For companies to be categorised under the following classifications two out of the three statements must be true:
If you find you are unable to answer all of your questions in this section, we are always delighted to hear from you.
Call us on (0117) 330 8910 with any enquiries