Risk score - a unique predictive scoring model has been developed in conjunction with Scorex (UK) Ltd aimed at enabling you to detect those companies at risk of corporate failure within the next 12 months.
In the course of a year, approximately 2% of the trading population will become insolvent. However, this doesn’t mean that every company has a 2% chance of failure. By using a risk score, we can give you more precise and accurate information indicating which companies have a higher risk of insolvency.
The scoring system gives each company a rating of 1 to 100, with 1 indicating a high risk of becoming insolvent, and 100 being a low risk. By using historical statistics we can calculate the relative risk of insolvency at each company’s score and compare this with the background rate of 2%.
These examples illustrate the extremes of the scale. This system indicates the probability of a company becoming insolvent, it is not a certainty or a guarantee. Companies with a score of 10 or less still have a 50% chance of survival, and 0.25% of companies with a score of 80 or over will still fail. This is the nature of probability – it indicates the likelihood of an event occurring, but cannot predict what will actually happen.
The credit limit helps you to work out an indication of a company’s capability to settle potential credit transactions. It uses the credit capacity and risk score of a company to help create a guide to the level of credit that this company should be able to settle.
To work out the credit limit, these three values are taken into consideration:
The average of these 3 values is taken as the guide to the company’s credit capacity. The credit limit also takes into account a company’s risk score, so that high risk companies are less likely to be extended the same level of credit as low risk companies. This helps to protect creditors from extending high levels of credit to companies which are likely to become insolvent.
The final value is taken as a percentage of the credit capacity, where the percentage is directly proportional to risk score, i.e. the greater the score the higher the percentage, which can be from 2.5 to 25%.
There are exceptions to this formula, which is industry specific.
There are some companies that will not have a credit limit attached. These companies will have scored below 15 or alternatively all elements from the balance sheet and cash flow will be negative.
The credit limit for newly incorporated companies, depending on the legal status of the company, is set a credit limit between £500 and £5,000. The limit will then increase over time unless adverse data is filed. Once a set of accounts has been filed the normal methodology for the calculation applies
The contract limits are calculated as a percentage of turnover. The latest disclosed turnover reflects the level of successful contracts completed, hence gives an indication of future capacity. Where turnover is not disclosed (abridged accounts), an estimated figure is used based on asset values and appropriate industry data. As with credit limits, the higher the score the greater the % to apply (range = 2.5% to 35%). This measurement views the applicant as a supplier of goods and services, whereas a credit limit assesses the applicant as a purchaser. The maximum value is capped at £500 million and the minimum value is now £500.
The resulting limit should be regarded as a yardstick for maximum contract capacity on a single contract over a 12 month period.
A contract limit combines relative risk and absolute measurement of contract capacity.
Ultimate holding companies are sourced from the annual report and accounts; this is the only place where a company is obliged to publish this information.
The annual return and annual report and accounts are filed separately and at different dates each year. In some cases you might have to wait nearly two years for the annual report and accounts to be made public. Hence the system may have identified the holding company from the annual return but cannot ascertain the ultimate holding company as the accounts have not been filed.
It is possible for ownership of a company to change between annual returns. If this change does not involve any new allotments of shares, the transfer of ownership will not be reported until the next annual return is filed.
It is possible for the ultimate owner of a company to change between annual reports and accounts. This change will not show until the next annual report and accounts is filed and analysed by the system.
In the case of certain non analysed companies, for example non traders or dormant companies, the holding company and the ultimate holding company are still updated from the relevant source documents.
If the holding company field is blank but the ultimate holding company is not this would generally mean that no individual company was identified in the annual return as the holding company but that the ultimate holding company was reported in the last set of accounts. You should check the date of latest annual return and latest analysed accounts to aid interpretation.
A holding company or ultimate holding company's name may change between annual returns or annual reports and accounts. On Aquila, for UK holding companies and ultimate holding companies, the new name will be reflected, as the registration number is used to look up the current name when a report is requested.
In exceptional circumstances the information contained within a report may differ from what is expected. The detail of information required by law can differ depending on individual company circumstances:
For companies to be categorised under the following classifications two out of the three statements must be true:
If you find you are unable to answer all of your questions in this section, we are always delighted to hear from you.
Call us on (0117) 330 8910 with any enquiries